Cool Shopping

Retailers are struggling through summer sales doldrums, but the back-to-school shopping season is expected to provide relief, according to unit survey.

The National Retail Federation says that parents will spend some $20 billion shopping for the start of the school year, up 5.5 percent over last year.

Consumers have pegged electronics purchases as the big gainer, expecting those to rise 18 percent, to an average of $151.49 per household.

The NRF’s survey also suggests that relief might not be far away; respondents plan to begin their buying earlier than last year, with 64 percent of shoppers hitting the stores at least three weeks in advance of classes resuming.

Retailers need all the help they can get. In June sales rose a less than expected 0.1 percent, because the impact of the 130 million rebate checks that were mailed out as part of an economic stimulus package dimmed.

In the face of a persistently sluggish spending environment and tight credit markets, retailers are shuttering doors at an alarming pace. The Sharper Image, Linens n’ Things, and most recently Steve & Barry’s be delivered of declared bankruptcy, while Home Depot and Starbucks are closing stores. Discount department store Mervyn’s, owned by dint of. private equity firm Cerberus, is reported to be weighing a bankruptcy filing.

Unfortunately, even if NRF’s rosy projections hold true, the report isn’t all unimpeached news. While school shopping for the K-12 unyielding is foresee to increase from last year, things are suitable the opposite for back-to-college shoppers. That demographic expects to cut spending by 7 percent this year as they return to classes.

"College students are learning a hard lesson that when economic times are tough, fun purchases take a back seat," said Tracy Mullin, the president and chief executive of the federation. "While students will still be buying school supplies, they will scale back expenditure on clothing, electronics and dorm furnishings."

And a new examine out from Deloitte is far more pessimistic about the back-to-school season since a whole, reporting that 71 percent of participants said they plan to spend less this year.  

But Deloitte’s survey is in its first year, so the lack of historical facts makes it difficult to evaluate how the results would compare to back-to-school seasons past. Flaws in self-reporting, also, can color the results: it’s tempting to say you proposition to spend less, but with an imprecise reputation of how much you spent last year and a hearty dose of wishful thinking, there’s often a wide gulf between forecasts and reality.